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    Wednesday, July 19, 2017

    The deadliest weather-related disaster: Earth had its Third Warmest June on Record: NOAA

    Above: The deadliest weather-related disaster of June was in Bangladesh, where the arrival of the southwest monsoon brought torrential rains that brought devastating flooding and landslides in southeastern portions of the country on June 12 – 13, killing 155 people. An additional 15 people died in the neighboring Indian states of Mizoram and Assam, bringing the total death toll to 169. 



    Portions of Bangladesh’s power grid were destroyed, leading to widespread power outages, and total economic damage was estimated in the tens of millions of dollars. In this image, we see Bangladeshi fire fighters and residents search for victims of a landslide in Bandarban on June 13, 2017. Image credit: STR/AFP/Getty Images informs wunderground.com


    June 2017 was the planet's third warmest June since record keeping began in 1880, said NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) on Monday. NASA rated June 2017 as the fourth warmest June on record. The only warmer Junes came in El Niño years: 1998, 2015 and 2016. Minor differences can occur between the NASA and NOAA rankings because of their different techniques for analyzing data-sparse regions such as the Arctic.

    Global ocean temperatures last month were the third warmest on record for any June, according to NOAA, and global land temperatures were the fourth warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 12th warmest or 7th warmest for any June in the 39-year record, according to the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH) and Remote Sensing Systems (RSS), respectively.



    Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for June 2017, the third warmest June for the globe since record keeping began in 1880. Record warmth was observed across parts of the northern and southern Atlantic Ocean, specifically near the U.S. eastern coast, the African west coast and the southern South America east coast, central Asia and scattered across parts of Africa, western Europe, the Middle East, Brazil, and western Indian Ocean. Five of six continents had a top ten warm June, with Africa experiencing its warmest June since continental records began in 1910. No land or ocean areas experienced record cold June temperatures. Image credit: National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI).


    Second-warmest year on record thus far


    Each of the first six months of 2017 have ranked among the top three warmest months on record, giving 2017 the second highest January–June period in the 138-year record: 0.91°C (1.64°F) above the 20th century average of 13.5°C (56.3°F). This is behind the record year of 2016 by 0.16°C (0.29°F), but beats third-place 2015 by 0.05°C (0.09°F). This near-record warmth is especially remarkable given the lack of an El Niño event this year. Global temperatures tend to be warmer during El Niño years, when the ocean releases more heat to the atmosphere.

    Two billion-dollar weather disasters in June 2017


    Two billion-dollar weather disaster hit the Earth last month, according to the June 2017 Catastrophe Report from insurance broker Aon Benfield: a $1.4 billion severe weather outbreak in the Midwestern U.S., and a $2.4 billion flood in the Yangtze River valley of China. By the end of June, Earth had registered twelve billion-dollar weather events for 2017, which is a typical number for this point in the year. The year that ended with the most billion-dollar weather disasters in records going back to 1990 was 2013, with 41, and that year had seventeen billion-dollar disasters by the end of June. Last year, there were already 21 billion-dollar weather disasters by the end of June (that year ended up with 31 such disasters). Here are this year’s billion-dollar weather disasters through the end of June:

    Flooding, Peru, 1/1 – 4/1, $3.1 billion, 120 killed
    Severe Weather, Rockies, Plains, U.S., 5/8 – 5/11, $2.5 billion, 0 killed
    Flooding, China, 6/22 – 6/27, $2.4 billion, 31 killed
    Severe Weather, Plains, Southeast, Midwest U.S., 3/26 – 3/28, $2.2 billion, 0 killed
    Severe Weather, Midwest, Plains, Southeast U.S., 3/6 – 3/10, $2.1 billion, 0 killed
    Severe Weather, Midwest, Plains, Southeast MS Valley U.S., 4/28 – 5/01, $2.0 billion, 20 killed
    Tropical Cyclone Debbie, 3/27 – 4/5, $2.0 billion, 14 killed
    Drought, Somalia, Ethiopia, Kenya, 1/1 – 3/31, $1.9 billion, hundreds killed
    Severe Weather, South U.S., 2/27 - 3/2, $1.9 billion, 4 killed
    Severe Weather, Midwest U.S., 6/11, $1.4 billion, 0 killed
    Severe Weather, South U.S., 1/18 - 1/23, $1.3 billion, 21 killed
    Winter Weather, Plains, Southeast, Midwest, Northeast U.S., 3/13 - 3/15, $1.0 billion, 11 killed


    June Billion-Dollar Disaster 1. A line of severe thunderstorms known as a bow echo raced across eastern South Dakota, southern Minnesota and into Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan with wind gusts of 60-80 mph and large hail on June 11, leaving multiple people injured and knocking out power to over 90,000 customers. The Minneapolis – St. Paul metro region had substantial wind and hail damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles. Total economic losses were expected to approach $1.4 billion. Above, we see Peonies before and after the June 11, 2017 hailstorm, north of St. Paul, Minnesota. Image credit: Minnesota State Climatology Office.


    June Billion-Dollar Disaster 2. Flooding in nine southern Chinese provinces from June 22-27 – caused by seasonal Mei-yu rains – claimed at least 31 lives and damaged or destroyed more than 130,000 homes. A burst of convective activity on the rainband prompted torrential downpours that affected a vast swath of the Yangtze River Basin from June 22- 25. Across the provinces of Sichuan, Yunnan, Chongqing, Guizhou, Hubei, Hunan, Anhui, Jiangxi, and Zhejiang economic losses reached CNY15.8 billion (USD2.35 billion). Additional flooding in the south from a separate pulse of the seasonal rains led to another CNY400 million (USD60 million) in damage. Above: a flooded street in Changsha, Hunan province on July 2, 2017. Days of torrential rain in Hunan province raised the water level of the Xiangjiang river to exceed its record flood level. Image credit: STR/AFP/Getty Images.


    No El Niño or La Niña conditions expected into winter


    In its July 13 monthly advisory, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) stated that neither El Niño nor La Niña conditions were present in the Eastern Pacific (ENSO-neutral conditions existed), and these neutral conditions were expected to persist into the Northern Hemisphere winter (50 – 55% chance.) Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the benchmark Niño 3.4 region (in the equatorial Pacific) were about 0.5°C above average over the past week; SSTs of 0.5°C or more above average in this region are required to be classified as weak El Niño conditions, with the 3-month average SSTs holding at these levels for five consecutive months (with an accompanying El Niño-like atmospheric response). A surge of enhanced east-to-west blowing trade winds is predicted for the west-central Pacific over the next two weeks, and these stronger-than-average trade winds will interfere with any progression towards El Niño.

    NOAA forecasters gave a 35 - 45% chance of an El Niño event occurring this year—a slight downgrade from their previous month’s forecast, which gave a 35 - 50% chance. El Niño conditions tend to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity by bringing strong upper-level winds to the tropical Atlantic, creating high wind shear that tears storms apart. A reduction in the odds of El Niño boosts the odds of an active Atlantic hurricane season.

    Read more at wunderground.com

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